Circle Prices IPO at $26 – The USDC Math

Circle priced its IPO at $26, valuing the company at $5.5B — the USDC math is the most interesting part.

S-1 disclosed USDC reserve: 78% short-duration treasuries, 22% cash. ~$1.7B annualized in interest income against ~$280M operating expense. Coinbase rev-share takes a slice; residual is durable cash flow.

What the lock-up implies

180-day lock-up on insider shares concentrates supply pressure into Q4 2026. Float is tight; price discovery will be choppy until then.

CFL view: cleanest stablecoin issuer public comparable. Use it as the benchmark.